"Piled Higher and Deeper" as one comic strip puts is. Moi working on the analysis of Cyber-Physical Systems and security. Here at UIUC. This blog has nothing really to do with my research/work/etc...just some random musings, along with some hard opinions...
Monday, August 15, 2005
Indian Economy Blog.
Here is a blog that tracks the Indian Economy. This was created today and I got this link from Amit Varma's India Uncut page.
I'm continually amazed by a kind of public blindness to the obvious realities around us. I don't want to go into details, arguments, justifications etc. because they obscure the big picture. I don't want to talk about global warming, unsustainable growth, extinction of species etc. because they seem like distant theoretical stuff to us.
I'm stating a fact as bluntly as possible: our lifestyles are about to take a big hit.
The world economy -- and with it the India economy -- is coming unravelled. Please stop believing in bullish projections; the government and big businesses are just kidding themselves and kidding us that all will be well.
Our current world order, which we broadly refer to as our economy, has been built on too many untested assumptions. What we -- and our economists and governments -- firmly believe as solid bedrock is only shifting sand, and the sand is shifting uncomfortably beneath our feet. The superstructure that has been built up in the past two or three decades is far more than this sand will continue to bear.
We keep telling ourselves and each other that the shifting is only temporary, like a bit of stock market bearishness. But this shifting is not so temporary. Big adjustments are starting to happen which may take 60-70 years to completely settle down. These changes -- the collapse of an unsustainably tall tower -- will not end in our lifetime.
What does this mean? Firstly, it means that the kind of rich urban living that we take for granted is about to become impossible to continue. We cannot change our habits of living and thinking, but we are about to have them changed for us, most drastically and unpleasantly.
We can no longer live by intellectual labour alone. We are about to have a large amount of physical toil thrust upon us. Large numbers of us will die because they are unable to physically, psychologically or socially adapt.
Our children are growing up under the illusion that they shall live in a comfortable world like ours. I'm afraid that is not the case. Their lifestyle may resemble the lives of cotton farmers in Vidharba... and that is if they are fortunate.
Our living conditions will very probably resemble what is available in Afghanistan or Iraq. We shall all have to get used to living and dying with that level of daily discomfort, uncertainty and deprivation. Our cities will become largely uninhabitable due to a sudden drop in the level of infrastructure and of livelihoods. Jobs will vanish overnight, and so will power supply and water supply. Transportation will become patchy. There will be a huge drop in mobile, telephone and internet connectivity as well, and a huge rise in costs.
Savings will vanish overnight as markets and banks collapse. Galloping inflation will make currency almost worthless.
Our psychological and social skills will be the key determinant of of our continued survival. A vast majority of us, whose skills have wasted away due to easy living, will not make the cut.
All this is set to happen within the next two or three years.
I make this deeply uncomfortable statement because I believe it is true. I hope that understanding all this will help at least a few of us orient ourselves, brace ourselves, our kids and our old folks for the hurricane of events that is about to unfold with terrifying speed and inevitability. Knowledge and forewarning is what enables us to adapt and survive.
And yes: admittedly, I am stating this because I am deeply anxious. Sharing my thoughts with friends helps me relieve my anxiety a bit.
I really want us all to come out of our comfortable mental burrows and face our future with open eyes and minds. Our response doesn't have to be catatonic; we don't have to freeze up like rabbits caught in the headlights, doing nothing but waiting for the impact. It doesn't have to be blind panic... but it doesn't have to be pure denial either!
There is a very tiny chance that we can all strategize the best way to face the impending crisis, provided we recognize it early enough to take action. It seems wildly optimistic to think that substantial numbers of citizens can get together, discuss and act intelligently, rather than getting caught up in ego-battles. It seems even more optimistic that they can convince the government at various levels to be truly proactive and do something truly different.
But I prefer to believe that such things can happen in the months to come. Come, let us put our heads together and make them happen. Contact me at earthspirits3@gmail.com or phone me on 9821588114.
Indian companies have risen above the meaning of the government and provided a platform for their shares to do likewise. Investors should focus on areas that are not dependent on reforms to come but those that have benefited from achievements attained. In essence, these are the general embrace of capitalism over the past 15 years and the state's change of focus, from monopolising wealth creation to a focus on its redistribution. ---------------------- Wendell
2 comments:
I'm continually amazed by a kind of public blindness to the obvious realities around us. I don't want to go into details, arguments, justifications etc. because they obscure the big picture. I don't want to talk about global warming, unsustainable growth, extinction of species etc. because they seem like distant theoretical stuff to us.
I'm stating a fact as bluntly as possible: our lifestyles are about to take a big hit.
The world economy -- and with it the India economy -- is coming unravelled. Please stop believing in bullish projections; the government and big businesses are just kidding themselves and kidding us that all will be well.
Our current world order, which we broadly refer to as our economy, has been built on too many untested assumptions. What we -- and our economists and governments -- firmly believe as solid bedrock is only shifting sand, and the sand is shifting uncomfortably beneath our feet. The superstructure that has been built up in the past two or three decades is far more than this sand will continue to bear.
We keep telling ourselves and each other that the shifting is only temporary, like a bit of stock market bearishness. But this shifting is not so temporary. Big adjustments are starting to happen which may take 60-70 years to completely settle down. These changes -- the collapse of an unsustainably tall tower -- will not end in our lifetime.
What does this mean? Firstly, it means that the kind of rich urban living that we take for granted is about to become impossible to continue. We cannot change our habits of living and thinking, but we are about to have them changed for us, most drastically and unpleasantly.
We can no longer live by intellectual labour alone. We are about to have a large amount of physical toil thrust upon us. Large numbers of us will die because they are unable to physically, psychologically or socially adapt.
Our children are growing up under the illusion that they shall live in a comfortable world like ours. I'm afraid that is not the case. Their lifestyle may resemble the lives of cotton farmers in Vidharba... and that is if they are fortunate.
Our living conditions will very probably resemble what is available in Afghanistan or Iraq. We shall all have to get used to living and dying with that level of daily discomfort, uncertainty and deprivation. Our cities will become largely uninhabitable due to a sudden drop in the level of infrastructure and of livelihoods. Jobs will vanish overnight, and so will power supply and water supply. Transportation will become patchy. There will be a huge drop in mobile, telephone and internet connectivity as well, and a huge rise in costs.
Savings will vanish overnight as markets and banks collapse. Galloping inflation will make currency almost worthless.
Our psychological and social skills will be the key determinant of of our continued survival. A vast majority of us, whose skills have wasted away due to easy living, will not make the cut.
All this is set to happen within the next two or three years.
I make this deeply uncomfortable statement because I believe it is true. I hope that understanding all this will help at least a few of us orient ourselves, brace ourselves, our kids and our old folks for the hurricane of events that is about to unfold with terrifying speed and inevitability. Knowledge and forewarning is what enables us to adapt and survive.
And yes: admittedly, I am stating this because I am deeply anxious. Sharing my thoughts with friends helps me relieve my anxiety a bit.
I really want us all to come out of our comfortable mental burrows and face our future with open eyes and minds. Our response doesn't have to be catatonic; we don't have to freeze up like rabbits caught in the headlights, doing nothing but waiting for the impact. It doesn't have to be blind panic... but it doesn't have to be pure denial either!
There is a very tiny chance that we can all strategize the best way to face the impending crisis, provided we recognize it early enough to take action. It seems wildly optimistic to think that substantial numbers of citizens can get together, discuss and act intelligently, rather than getting caught up in ego-battles. It seems even more optimistic that they can convince the government at various levels to be truly proactive and do something truly different.
But I prefer to believe that such things can happen in the months to come. Come, let us put our heads together and make them happen. Contact me at earthspirits3@gmail.com or phone me on 9821588114.
Warm Regards
Krishnaraj Rao
Mumbai
http://friendlyghost.rediffiland.com
http://globalwarming.rediffiland.com
Indian companies have risen above the meaning of the government and provided a platform for their shares to do likewise. Investors should focus on areas that are not dependent on reforms to come but those that have benefited from achievements attained. In essence, these are the general embrace of capitalism over the past 15 years and the state's change of focus, from monopolising wealth creation to a focus on its redistribution.
----------------------
Wendell
NEW, NEW, NEW
Post a Comment